A succinct description. I'm torn because I do want to move on from empire but this will be an exceptionally stupid, harsh, and impoverishing way to do it.
Thanks Greg - that was a thoroughly convincing narrative. I hope it accurately describes what happens. War is unpredictable when you have lunatics and ideologies in charge. Iran Will win I hope but they will have a huge job to rebuild. The Yanks are unlikely to provide reparations. So in the end it’s a lose-lose situation. The biggest win would be destruction of the Petrodollar system as this woul neuter US hegemony and completely alter the global balance of power. That would be a very desirable outcome IMHO but it still leave the Israel/Zionist problem. How do we excise that country and the moral cancer of Zionism????
The Iranians have got two of the world's greatest production and logistical countries behind and supporting them, no doubt already organising and preparing to go in an rebuild when they're able to do so, without foreign interference. They'll be fine eventually. It's the rest of us, especially in the West who are utterly screwed.
Thank you for providing an interesting, well reasoned and presented article and analysis.
One point of divergence is concerning the "perfection" of drone technology by Ukraine. While they initially did steal a march over the Russian Federation in the use of Drones, necessity being the mother of invention after all. They have however long since lost that edge, in both production and application. The Russians have learned their lessons and applied them. As for counter drone technologies, these are limited, experimental and far from certain. The Russians have developed fibre optic drones, operating over long ranges and to great effect, which are unaffected by the various conventional means of bringing drones down. They have to be engaged directly, which is extremely difficult and often unsuccessful. Most Ukrainian drone defences were supplied by the West and are of expensive and limited western anti-missile technology, rather than their own invention. All parties involved in the Ukrainian conflict are rushing to develop anti-drone technologies via various methods. The Ukrainian successes in the drone fields are due to the direct assistance of their suppliers and backers, on intelligence, materials, construction, etc. The Ukrainians produce relatively fewer drones themselves, but reportedly perform final assembly of products supplied. There's apparently NATO personnel present in Ukraine performing support, technical and some operational tasks for them.
Inspite of all of which and the endless propaganda, they're losing. The Russians are not in a hurry, haste wastes lives and resources. This is attritional warfare, as per the Russian strategical take on Von Klauswitz. The Ukrainians are either coming to them, and when they're not the Russians are maintaining contact and pressure on the enemy. By doing so the Russians can preserve much and rotate when needed. They're also degrading their enemies and the West, forcing them to expend limited, valuable and expensive munitions and manpower, while broadly preserving their own.
That being said, Russia and China are supporting Iran in various ways and will continue to do so far longer than the US, Israel and NATO can sustain their efforts. That's not to say it's all one-sided in Iran's favour, it's not. But all they have to do in order to win, is hold on. Their enemies by contrast... Iran has escalatory dominance in real terms for a variety of reasons. They're proving that already, and as you amongst others have stated, they've done much less than their worst so far, they're keeping their powder dry so to speak and waiting patiently for the best circumstances to use what they've got, when they consider that they gain the most from doing so. It's proving rather painful to all so far, and that's going to get measurably worse for the rest of us, especially in the West as time goes on. There will be no returning to normal that we all once knew and enjoyed. Those days are over. America has chosen to go "balls-deep into Thuycdide's Trap" and the consequences have yet to really be experienced or understood. Times have indeed gotten interesting, and they're going to get a lot more interesting yet.
You say: "Ukraine has spent the last four years perfecting drone warfare technology and tactics in their war with Russia, which is using Iranian drone technology.". I suspect you are following Western media when you say this.
You should follow the substack "Events in Ukraine" for a more on-the-ground look. Ukraine has very little technology development, they mostly just know how to use stuff designed manufactured in China.
Media? Maybe a former military intel analyst’s take will better suit you then. It was Ukraine who made the first drone battalions an entire year and a half before Russia did. They used “stuff designed and manufactured in China” back in 2014 when they were mostly buying DJI’s for ISR. Their use as munitions began on the Ukrainian side out of necessity against superior forces and they began using nationally manufactured drones before Russia even invaded, the formation of their own dedicated units only increased demand for more efficient manufacturing and better utility. Don’t even get me started on their sea-borne drones which have sunk not only docked submarines but whole frigates. Ukraine was the first to use AI on drones and it even has public training platforms online that you can use right now. They HAVE perfected this to the point of it playing a huge part in halting the world’s second largest Army and the first largest armored ground force on their own doorstep for four years. That’s not to say Russia hasn’t made equally clever advances like with their initial use of fiber optic cables, or hunter drones armed with hooks, they just did not as much of a need to innovate as Ukraine did.
The dollar will fall because Saudi Arabia started selling oil for other currencies as soon as the Kissinger petrodollar deal expired in June 2024. That's why the orange puppet's masters are happy that the Purim War - whatever it does to Iran - will shatter Saudi Arabia.
A succinct description. I'm torn because I do want to move on from empire but this will be an exceptionally stupid, harsh, and impoverishing way to do it.
Agreed
Americans need to discover the virtue of humility. I only see one way.
Thanks Greg - that was a thoroughly convincing narrative. I hope it accurately describes what happens. War is unpredictable when you have lunatics and ideologies in charge. Iran Will win I hope but they will have a huge job to rebuild. The Yanks are unlikely to provide reparations. So in the end it’s a lose-lose situation. The biggest win would be destruction of the Petrodollar system as this woul neuter US hegemony and completely alter the global balance of power. That would be a very desirable outcome IMHO but it still leave the Israel/Zionist problem. How do we excise that country and the moral cancer of Zionism????
The Iranians have got two of the world's greatest production and logistical countries behind and supporting them, no doubt already organising and preparing to go in an rebuild when they're able to do so, without foreign interference. They'll be fine eventually. It's the rest of us, especially in the West who are utterly screwed.
Thank you for providing an interesting, well reasoned and presented article and analysis.
One point of divergence is concerning the "perfection" of drone technology by Ukraine. While they initially did steal a march over the Russian Federation in the use of Drones, necessity being the mother of invention after all. They have however long since lost that edge, in both production and application. The Russians have learned their lessons and applied them. As for counter drone technologies, these are limited, experimental and far from certain. The Russians have developed fibre optic drones, operating over long ranges and to great effect, which are unaffected by the various conventional means of bringing drones down. They have to be engaged directly, which is extremely difficult and often unsuccessful. Most Ukrainian drone defences were supplied by the West and are of expensive and limited western anti-missile technology, rather than their own invention. All parties involved in the Ukrainian conflict are rushing to develop anti-drone technologies via various methods. The Ukrainian successes in the drone fields are due to the direct assistance of their suppliers and backers, on intelligence, materials, construction, etc. The Ukrainians produce relatively fewer drones themselves, but reportedly perform final assembly of products supplied. There's apparently NATO personnel present in Ukraine performing support, technical and some operational tasks for them.
Inspite of all of which and the endless propaganda, they're losing. The Russians are not in a hurry, haste wastes lives and resources. This is attritional warfare, as per the Russian strategical take on Von Klauswitz. The Ukrainians are either coming to them, and when they're not the Russians are maintaining contact and pressure on the enemy. By doing so the Russians can preserve much and rotate when needed. They're also degrading their enemies and the West, forcing them to expend limited, valuable and expensive munitions and manpower, while broadly preserving their own.
That being said, Russia and China are supporting Iran in various ways and will continue to do so far longer than the US, Israel and NATO can sustain their efforts. That's not to say it's all one-sided in Iran's favour, it's not. But all they have to do in order to win, is hold on. Their enemies by contrast... Iran has escalatory dominance in real terms for a variety of reasons. They're proving that already, and as you amongst others have stated, they've done much less than their worst so far, they're keeping their powder dry so to speak and waiting patiently for the best circumstances to use what they've got, when they consider that they gain the most from doing so. It's proving rather painful to all so far, and that's going to get measurably worse for the rest of us, especially in the West as time goes on. There will be no returning to normal that we all once knew and enjoyed. Those days are over. America has chosen to go "balls-deep into Thuycdide's Trap" and the consequences have yet to really be experienced or understood. Times have indeed gotten interesting, and they're going to get a lot more interesting yet.
You say: "Ukraine has spent the last four years perfecting drone warfare technology and tactics in their war with Russia, which is using Iranian drone technology.". I suspect you are following Western media when you say this.
You should follow the substack "Events in Ukraine" for a more on-the-ground look. Ukraine has very little technology development, they mostly just know how to use stuff designed manufactured in China.
Media? Maybe a former military intel analyst’s take will better suit you then. It was Ukraine who made the first drone battalions an entire year and a half before Russia did. They used “stuff designed and manufactured in China” back in 2014 when they were mostly buying DJI’s for ISR. Their use as munitions began on the Ukrainian side out of necessity against superior forces and they began using nationally manufactured drones before Russia even invaded, the formation of their own dedicated units only increased demand for more efficient manufacturing and better utility. Don’t even get me started on their sea-borne drones which have sunk not only docked submarines but whole frigates. Ukraine was the first to use AI on drones and it even has public training platforms online that you can use right now. They HAVE perfected this to the point of it playing a huge part in halting the world’s second largest Army and the first largest armored ground force on their own doorstep for four years. That’s not to say Russia hasn’t made equally clever advances like with their initial use of fiber optic cables, or hunter drones armed with hooks, they just did not as much of a need to innovate as Ukraine did.
I suppose it depends on the point of comparison.
The future of warfare is unmanned. America didn't lose enough soldiers in Ukraine to learn this lesson.
Ah yes Greg the dollar will fall because Saudi Arabia bought anti drone drones from Ukraine
I can’t decide if you are being dumb or dishonest.
I used to think that reading your stuff
The dollar will fall because Saudi Arabia started selling oil for other currencies as soon as the Kissinger petrodollar deal expired in June 2024. That's why the orange puppet's masters are happy that the Purim War - whatever it does to Iran - will shatter Saudi Arabia.
This is Iranian propaganda.
Congratulations! You've just qualified to become a senior advisor to Donald J Trump.